Bitcoin [BTC]: A sell-off could be on the horizon, unless…

• Analysts agree that BTC could trade above $30,000 before a notable drawback.
• The $1 million prediction by Balaji is unlikely, but short-term direction depends on FOMC.

In 2022, several analysts, at different intervals, gave their opinion on Bitcoin [BTC] hitting rock bottom. And on many occasions, the king coin did not agree with the analysts, even though some issues like the FTX collapse played a part in subsequent price drops.

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Fast forward to 2023. It could seem that some of those calls were wrong, as BTC had only fared better. According to CryptoQuant analyst BaroVirtual, the condition of the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands was instrumental to the strides recorded in the new year.

Can BTC sustain the green?

The UTXO Age Bands summarizes the behavior of short and long-term holders in view of the macro shift in influence among both parties. The analyst opined that there was a bearish crossover between the 6 million to 12 million and 12 million to 18 million age bands. This confirmed the early bullish signal before the press time reflection.

Source: CryptoQuant

An explanation of the data above points to the fact that new buyers within the longer UTXO age bands have emerged. This fostered the position for a further long-term HODL and has helped support BTC price action.

However, BaroVirtual mentioned that BTC risks a bearish stance in the mid-term. Although he pointed out that the sell-off might not occur until BTC hits between $30,000 or $33,000 or in unusual circumstances, $37,000 to $40,000 region. 

The analyst also defended his position by referring to the historically even bearish years and odd bullish seasons. He noted that he doesn’t expect the potential second uptrend to be better than the first quarter, stating:

“Bitcoin lives in 4-year cycles from one halving to another. An even year is a bear, and an odd year is a bull. Therefore, 2023 is bullish, but the 2nd uptrend in the cycle is always weaker than the 1st; that is, the previous historical high is not updated”

$30,000 or nothing because…

In another historical data reference, Gigisulivan, another CryptoQuant analyst, pointed to the Short-Term Holder SOPR. This metric tracks coin movements and the status of investors selling at a loss or profit.

The analyst noted the metric was at its highest point since November 2021. At press time, the Short-Term Holder SOPR was 1.027. Since the value was above 1, it indicated that short-term investors were selling at a profit.

Source: CryptoQuant

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024

However, Gigisulivan added that in bear market exits, the metric increase was a sign of a further uptrend instead of a decline. Like BaroVirtual, he also mentioned that BTC could rise above $30,000. 

At the same time, he said the $1 million 90-day Bitcoin prediction of Coinbase’s former CTO was unachievable. Meanwhile, the short-term BTC movement would also depend on the outcome of the FOMC meeting.