Bitcoin [BTC] breaks out, crosses $30k: Are more gains likely?

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

• The unemployment rate remained steady, but hourly earnings increased compared to February 2023.
• Open interest rates and addresses holding more than 1 BTC increased. 

Following a strong US jobs report, Bitcoin [BTC] finally broke above its range and retested the $30k price zone. BTC has been trading within the $26.8k – $28.8k range, setting the altcoin market into varying price consolidation and short pullbacks. 

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-24

Despite being a holiday, the US Labor Department issued the jobs report on 7 April. According to the report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs in March, marginally below the estimated 240k. 

The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5% while labor force participation increased to pre-pandemic levels. In addition, the hourly earnings rose 0.3% more than in February as annual gain cooled to 4.2%, slightly below February’s 4.6% – showing a strong labor market. 

Finally, the long-awaited breakthrough to $30k

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

After a strong upswing induced by the US banking crisis around 13 March, BTC has been consolidating narrowly around $28k. At press time, BTC broke above the range and zoomed into the $29.5k – 31.4k range, appreciating by over 6% in the past 24 hours. 

BTC could attempt to retest the $31.4k resistance level if the bullish sentiment remains. The next likely range target is $31.4k – 32.6k. A close above $32k could face negligible resistance, as the drop in May 2022 didn’t face any obstacles. 

But the first sign of weakness will be a break below $28.5k. A stronger weakening could occur if BTC falls below the 20 EMA (exponential moving average) of $27.97k and the previous range lower boundary of $26.8k. 

Meanwhile, the RSI retreated but was back into the overbought level – buying pressure dipped but improved afterward. But the OBV chalked a sideways movement, indicating the fluctuating volumes in the past few days. 

Open interest and addresses holding over 1 BTC increased

Source: Coinglass

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Q2 2023 is off to a great start, with open interest (OI) rates increasing from $11.548 billion on 1 April to $12.885 billion at press time (11 April). Bullish sentiment may indicate traders were expecting more upswing. But the OI slightly flattened after BTC breached the range, indicating some investors may be cashing out of the rally. 

Nevertheless, the number of addresses holding over 1 BTC has increased since the beginning of April. The number increased from 991,937 on 1 April to 994,122 on 10 April – over 2000 unique addresses with over 1 BTC since the beginning of the month. This shows retail interest may not be waning anytime soon. 

Source: Glassnode